Some excellent lessons in volume price analysis on the daily chart for oil and as always giving is a clear view on where the price of oil is heading next. For regular readers, you will already be familiar with my forecasts for the medium to long term which are essentially of long-term congestion until demand returns.
For intraday and shorter-term trading volume gave us some excellent signals last week as prices fell, and it was on the 29th of October we saw the first signs of buying with the candle closing with a deep wick to the lower body on excellent volume. This was the first sign the buyers were moving in on stopping volume. The following day was one of consolidation, before a further move lower, with more buying, with the candle closing higher and with a deep wick to the lower body. So two days of buying, which was sufficient to propel the WTI futures contract back towards the $40 per barrel area, and into heavy resistance in terms of the volume histogram of the volume point of control which itself remains anchored at $40.80 per barrel.
So, as I have written many times over the last few weeks, expect further congestion to follow if it reaches this level, and with little prospect of any changes in the demand and supply equation, prices are likely to remain capped in this area for some time to come.
By Anna Coulling
Charts from NinjaTrader and indicators from Quantum Trading
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