Today’s price action in SPY, Oil, and QQQ delivered a masterclass in traps: oil spiked then collapsed, while indices gapped down only to reverse sharply higher. These classic fakeouts caught many traders on the wrong side — but volume price analysis (VPA) revealed the truth in real time. In this live session, Anna Coulling breaks down the moves, showing exactly how volume signals, momentum divergences, and participation levels exposed the traps and pointed to the real direction.

Core Points

[00:21 ~ 04:46] The primary focus of the session is the recent dramatic price action in the oil market, highlighted by a significant spike followed by the formation of a “shooting star” candlestick on the daily chart—a strong reversal signal in candlestick analysis. This candle signals potential price retracement or reversal, especially when accompanied by high volume. Traders are cautioned against impulsively reacting to such volatile movements without waiting for confirmation, as momentum-driven spikes often lead to losses if approached without discipline.
[04:08 ~ 09:50] The methodology used throughout the analysis is volume price analysis (VPA), which examines the relationship between price movements and volume to predict market direction. The presenter explains that VPA is foundational for understanding market behavior and is supported by several proprietary indicators developed by the Quantum Trading team. The oil price movement is linked not only to technical chart patterns but also to fundamental geopolitical events, such as tensions in Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which impact supply and thus drive price volatility.
[09:53 ~ 14:46] The oil market is complex due to varying break-even prices among oil-producing countries. For example, Saudi Arabia’s break-even price is around $80, while others require higher prices to sustain production. Rising oil prices can benefit producers but risk triggering inflation and economic slowdown if prices rise too high. Recent price action shows a breakout from a consolidation phase starting from April last year, but follow-through on volume and price has been inconsistent, signaling potential market indecision or manipulation. This is illustrated by a sequence of volatility candles with high volume but limited price progression, a textbook example of complex volume price dynamics.

Geopolitical Context

[14:53 ~ 17:56] The geopolitical context has intensified volatility, with supply chain disruptions affecting refining and transportation of oil. Despite these pressures, recent candles on the chart show high volume but a lack of sustained upward momentum, culminating in a large shooting star candle signaling a possible reversal. The market’s reaction is unpredictable and patience is advised to confirm if the price will continue higher or reverse. This uncertainty reflects the broader challenges traders face in volatile geopolitical situations.
[17:20 ~ 24:42] Beyond oil, the presenter reviews the behavior of major equity indices such as the S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq (the Qs), and the E-mini S&P (ES). The SPY has been in a consolidation phase since December with a recent break below a key support level at 672, but subsequent price action indicates this level is acting as a strong support, causing price to bounce back repeatedly. Trading decisions here should be based on individual risk tolerance and time horizons—short-term traders may react quickly to breakout moves, while swing traders should wait for clearer confirmation given the congestion and volatility.
[20:58 ~ 24:35] The Nasdaq (Qs) remains within its consolidation box, without the sharp breakdown seen in SPY, indicating a more stable technical setup. The ES index also shows signs of attempting to form a hammer candle after a recent decline, which could indicate a potential V-shaped reversal if confirmed by volume. However, such strong reversal candles often lead to congestion phases rather than immediate trends. The presenter stresses that we are in a “trader’s market,” dominated by short-term volatility rather than clear trend direction, and emphasizes the importance of monitoring slower time frame levels which carry more weight in decision-making.

Key Conclusions

[00:59 ~ 03:30] Sharp price movements combined with strong volume, such as the shooting star candle in oil, are powerful signals but require caution; premature trading on these signals without confirmation often results in losses. Patience and waiting for follow-through volume and price confirmation is essential in volatile markets.
[04:08 ~ 08:48] Volume price analysis provides critical insight into market behavior by linking volume and price changes, helping traders anticipate potential reversals or continuation. The oil market’s price is heavily influenced by geopolitical events and supply disruptions, which must be factored into any technical analysis.
[09:53 ~ 14:46] The current oil price breakout from a prolonged consolidation is irregular due to mixed signals in volume and price action, suggesting market participants are uncertain about the sustainability of the move. The presence of volatility candles with high volume but limited price progress signals potential traps for traders chasing breakouts.
[14:53 ~ 17:56] Despite fundamental reasons for oil prices to remain elevated (geopolitical tensions, supply constraints), the technical signals imply a possible reversal or at least a pause in the rally. Traders should remain patient and avoid rushing into positions based purely on headline news or initial price spikes.
[17:20 ~ 21:37] In the equity markets, especially SPY, consolidation and support levels remain highly significant. Breaks of these levels may trigger sharp moves, but false breakouts and bounces are common in volatile trading environments. This reinforces the need to adjust trading strategies based on time horizon and risk tolerance.
[22:17 ~ 24:42] Classic reversal candles (hammer, shooting star) are tempting trade signals but in the current unprecedented geopolitical and market context, they are less reliable and often lead to sideways congestion rather than strong trends. Traders must integrate multiple time frame analysis and volume confirmation before committing.

Important Details

[00:59 ~ 02:09] The “shooting star” candlestick is one of the strongest reversal candles, opposite to the “hammer.” Its significance increases when combined with high trading volume beneath it.
[04:44 ~ 06:56] The Quantum Trading team offers proprietary volume-price analysis indicators and educational programs for forex, stocks, and options trading. Viewers receive a 20% discount code (LS20%) for these resources by emailing helpes@quantumtrading.com.
[08:44 ~ 10:27] Historical correlation noted between oil and wheat prices: oil price rises tend to be followed by wheat price increases with about a one-year lag, as observed by market analyst Tom Mlelen. This underlines the interconnectedness of commodity markets.
[09:53 ~ 11:43] Oil producers have varying break-even costs; Saudi Arabia’s is lower (~$80), while others require $90+ per barrel. This influences how different countries react to price changes and affects global supply stability.