For years, the Dow has been dismissed as an “old” index. But in 2026, its price-weighted methodology has revealed the Real Economy rotation long before the S&P 500 caught on. In VPA, we look for Harmony and Anomalies. The $DIA provides these in spades because it isn’t distorted by a handful of trillion-dollar tech companies.
The Two-Step Congestion Pattern
The daily DIA chart currently showcases a perfect Two-Step Congestion:
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Step 1 (The Foundation): A narrow period of horizontal activity with price trading between $480 and $490.
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Step 2 (The New Plateau): At the start of the new trading year, DIA stepped higher, trading between $490 and $495. The volatility candle on high volume (as marked on the chart) then propelled DIA to an ATH of $505.30 as the Dow Jones breached the psychological $50,000 mark. However, as we can see, there was no follow-through (lack of volume) with DIA then reversing on a small shooting star on high volume, taking the ETF back into the $490-$495 congestion.
In my book, A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis, I explain that trends are born in these zones, but only after the clearly defined levels we see on the daily chart are taken out on high, consistent volume. And for those of you who like to use Fibonacci, you can see how the key levels align with our two-step congestion zone. Until then, it is a matter of being patient.
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By Anna Coulling – Creator of Volume Price Analysis
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