Getting started trading indices and commodities using volume price analysis

In this video, Anna Coulling explains how to get started trading indices and commodities, including index futures and metals such as gold, oil, silver, and copper.

00:21

Introduction and live stream schedule

00:21

Anna and David welcome viewers to their live stream series, explaining that they plan to host these sessions regularly despite the time commitment involved with their own trading. They introduce the topic for the day, which is based on feedback from a poll conducted on Anna’s YouTube channel, aimed at determining which markets and aspects of volume price analysis the audience wants covered in more detail.

01:35

History and background of futures trading

01:35

The speaker discusses futures trading, highlighting its significance as their original market of choice years ago before the internet era. They describe the early trading setup involving large terminals, satellite connections, and hotlines to brokers, emphasizing how they traded Footsie futures contracts priced at £10 per point.

02:15

The conversation continues with an explanation of the historical origins of futures markets, particularly from an agricultural standpoint where farmers used futures contracts to secure upfront payments. Trading of these contracts took place on the Chicago Board of Options (CBO) floor. The speaker then pauses to fix technical issues while explaining that futures markets have evolved significantly since their early days.

03:30

David takes over the presentation, greeting viewers and noting the time of day. He transitions to showing live market data using Ninja Trader software, mentioning a recent switch from Trading View. He thanks the audience for joining the live stream and prepares to continue the discussion.

04:08

Education discount and purchasing info

04:08

The speaker explains a 20% discount available on education programs, stock programs, and forex programs using the code LS20% at checkout. For indicator bundles across multiple platforms like TradingView, TradeStation, NinjaTrader, MT4, and MT5, customers need to email helpes@quantumtrading.com with their desired indicators and platform to receive a unique discount code. The LS20% code applies directly to the education shop for full list prices but does not work on EP pricing. Instructions for applying the code during checkout are provided, emphasizing contacting support for custom bundles.

06:20

Volume relative strength indicator overview

06:20

The speaker introduces the volume relative strength indicator (VRSI) as a complementary tool to traditional volume price analysis, demonstrating its application on the MNQ chart using 1, 2, and 3-minute intervals. They explain that the VRSI works in conjunction with their established volume price analysis methods. The segment ends with a transition to Anna, who resolves a technical issue and shares her screen to display a chart showing price action for further discussion.

07:28

E-mini S&P 500 futures and contract sizes

07:28

The speaker explains the E-mini future for the S&P 500, noting that the CME offers smaller contract sizes, including even nano contracts, to encourage more traders to enter the futures market. They highlight that the E-mini is a medium-sized contract among various options, including full contracts and smaller ones, designed to make trading more accessible. Originally, the futures market served primarily as a price discovery tool and acted as a predictor of market movements, sometimes compared to a canary in a coal mine, indicating potential future trends.

09:12

Futures as a predictor and commodity factors

09:12

The speaker explains how oil prices are influenced by geopolitical factors such as potential conflicts with Iran and the strategic importance of transportation routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. These sensitive choke points increase transportation costs. Additionally, OPEC plays a role in oil pricing, with war and geopolitical tensions often pushing prices higher. The discussion then shifts to soft commodities, particularly how weather impacts crop supply and pricing, prompting farmers to use futures contracts for risk management.

10:27

Copper is highlighted as a key commodity due to its vital role in supporting the energy demands of growing technologies like AI data centers. Until breakthroughs in energy sources like nuclear fusion or solar harnessing occur, copper demand is expected to rise. In China, copper is even perceived as a store of value similar to gold, influenced by political factors. The speaker notes that each commodity has its unique story and can serve as an indicator of future economic and inflation trends. Supply issues in commodities like wheat can affect inflation, monetary policy, and daily life, underscoring the significant importance of the commodity markets.

12:15

Commodity super cycle and market dynamics

12:15

The speaker discusses the concept of the commodity super cycle, a prolonged period of strong commodity bull markets lasting 10 to 30 years. There is speculation that a new super cycle may have begun around the COVID period, though this remains uncertain. The market’s dynamics are influenced by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors. The trading environment includes large trading houses, successful traders, and active exchanges encouraging market participation.

13:33

The discussion shifts to index futures, which have some leading indicators due to their 24/7 trading nature, unlike cash markets that open later in the day. Traders use futures to gauge market sentiment ahead of the cash market opening. The biggest influence on index futures has been the rise of zero days to expiration (DTE) options, especially in the E-mini S&P (ES), where dealers and market makers play a significant role.

14:17

Impact of zero DTE options on futures market

14:17

The discussion focuses on the impact of zero-day-to-expiration (zerodte) options, which now account for nearly 60% of SPX option volume in 2026, up from 50% the previous year. This surge translates to about 2.3 million contracts traded daily, creating significant challenges for market makers who must hedge their risk. Many option traders tend to go long, complicating dealers’ risk management further. The session introduces how volume and price analysis (VPA) can reveal market makers’ activity in both options and stock markets, which is also reflected in the futures market. Future sessions will provide detailed methods to identify and interpret these effects on charts.

16:13

The speakers outline plans for future sessions to analyze specific futures charts upon request and reflect on the evolving role of different markets. Historically, the futures market was the first to react quickly to news, leading movements that later influenced cash markets. However, with the growth and influence of options trading, especially zerodte options, the market dynamics have become more complex and less straightforward. The relationship between futures, cash, and options markets has changed, indicating a more nuanced interaction today.

17:21

Resources for futures market analysis

17:21

The speaker addresses a younger audience unfamiliar with futures markets, aiming to introduce the topic and provide useful resources. They mention two recommended charting websites, including Finn Viz, which offers free versions suitable for beginners to explore and understand futures markets without requiring paid subscriptions.

18:25

The speaker demonstrates how to use the charting site to explore futures performance, highlighting the variety of commodities available such as orange juice and platinum. They emphasize that many futures represent tangible products that are grown or extracted, providing a real, physical basis behind the market data shown on these charts.

19:07

Finn Viz platform features for futures

19:07

The speaker discusses various types of financial instruments including tangible assets like cattle and soya beans, as well as intangible ones such as indices and bonds. They highlight the importance of VIX futures as a measure of market sentiment. By examining different time frames—daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year-to-date—one can gauge market conditions. Rising VIX futures typically indicate market uncertainty or decline, providing valuable insight into market trends.

20:13

Risks of trading physical futures contracts

20:13

The speaker explains the risks involved in trading futures, specifically warning that if traders forget to close their positions, they might end up physically owning commodities like live cattle, soybeans, or rough rice. This underscores the speculative nature of futures trading and the importance of managing positions carefully.

20:50

The discussion shifts to different market sectors such as indices and the energy complex, including crude oil, Brent, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, and ethanol. The speaker notes the value of monitoring these markets for trading opportunities, pointing out that one does not have to trade futures contracts directly but can use alternatives like CFDs in Europe or ETFs and prediction markets elsewhere.

21:54

The speaker highlights Finn Viz as a useful platform for quickly viewing market activity across tangible and intangible products. Finn Viz offers features such as 5-minute charts and volume-price analysis, allowing traders to efficiently analyze market movements without accessing traditional trading platforms.

22:29

Applying volume price analysis to futures

22:29

The speaker explains how to identify market manipulation by observing price action, volume, anomalies, volatility, and momentum. Sudden changes often signal trap moves. They briefly mention bonds but focus on soft commodities like cocoa, coffee, and cotton, highlighting their potential for strong trends and volatility. Historical traders, such as WD Gann, made fortunes in these markets, often through lesser-known trading houses.

23:34

The discussion continues with a mention of famous commodity traders and trading houses, including Japanese firms known for immense fortunes. The speaker then shifts focus to metals like gold, silver, platinum, and copper, encouraging viewers to examine their charts to understand market behavior.

24:02

Review of futures charts and VPA signals

24:02

The speaker discusses analyzing daily charts from a Volume Price Analysis (VPA) perspective, focusing on various markets including meats and grains. Using soybean oil as an example, they highlight key chart patterns such as a double bottom, breakouts above resistance levels, and volume trends that signal market movements. The importance of understanding volume behavior during price moves is emphasized, illustrating how upward trends occur in steps with pauses and sideways moves supported by volume indicators.

25:28

The speaker explains that although soybean oil is priced in cents per pound, the VPA principles applied to its chart are universal and relevant to other markets like stocks and forex. They note that the lessons on VPA covered in their book and trading programs are applicable across different asset classes, reinforcing the value of volume and price analysis for traders in various markets.

25:57

Currency futures and trading considerations

25:57

The speaker discusses a significant section on options and zero days to expiration (DTE), noting that these concepts repeat across all markets, time frames, and asset classes. They also address currency trading, highlighting that in the United States, currencies are often traded through CFDs, which are limited and sometimes only accessible via offshore brokers, requiring caution. Futures are mentioned as an alternative for currency trading, with one aspect of futures yet to be explained.

26:31

Commitment of Traders data overview

26:31

The speaker introduces the Commitment of Traders (COT) data, which is specific to the commodities market and warrants a dedicated session. They discuss an overview of available products and charts, emphasizing the importance of both tangible commodities like gold, silver, and oil, as well as soft commodities, which may provide insights into future market trends.

27:05

The discussion continues with an introduction to Finn Viz, highlighting its valuable features such as daily quotes and a broad range of commodities. The speaker praises the platform’s continuous improvements and discovery of new functionalities, noting that it offers both free and paid versions with slight delays in data.

27:38

Finn Viz is further examined, emphasizing its accessibility through a free version and the availability of futures data including the Commitment of Traders report. The speaker notes that although the free version includes ads, it provides useful background information, helping users avoid extensive internet searches.

28:09

The speaker mentions another valuable site featuring bar charts that offers comprehensive background information despite ads in the free version. They then shift focus to the E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES), describing it as the most popular futures product among beginner traders, likening learning to trade it to the experience of just passing a driving test.

28:46

Popular index futures and market participants

28:46

The speaker discusses different index futures available for trading, including the ES (S&P 500 E-mini), MNQ (NASDAQ E-mini), and YM (Dow E-mini). They explain that the ES has become increasingly volatile and complex due to the involvement of multiple participants such as stock market makers, options market dealers, and portfolio managers who use these futures for hedging. Long-dated put options are highlighted as a common hedging tool to protect portfolios against significant market declines, contributing to the diverse motivations behind trading these indices.

30:32

Index futures chart patterns and volatility

30:32

The speaker discusses the DIA ETF, representing the Dow Jones, and compares it with the E-mini YM futures and ES futures. They highlight a long consolidation phase in the ES futures, noting a significant trend since April of the previous year. The daily chart reveals a prolonged period of congestion with high volatility, characterized by many price wicks, indicating a noisy market influenced by various participants.

31:42

The MNQ and S futures appear similarly noisy, but the YM futures show a steadier pattern. The Dow, having only 30 stocks, tends to move less, making the YM futures less volatile and considered somewhat boring by some traders. However, the YM can be a suitable choice for those wanting to engage with index futures without excessive noise.

32:22

Russell 2000 futures and volume price analysis

32:22

The speaker analyzes recent market movements in the E-mini Russell 2000 (RTY) and YM indices, focusing on volume and price action. They highlight how large volume under small candles signals key market behavior and explain the importance of Volume Price Analysis (VPA) as an internal dialogue when reviewing charts. The discussion emphasizes watching for harmony between price and volume, with mismatches serving as red flags indicating potential significant market moves. The presence of volatility candles combined with these signals indicates heightened alertness, suggesting that changes are imminent despite some follow-through that did not fully meet expectations.

34:00

Summary and next steps with futures charts

34:00

The speaker introduces the topic of futures markets, emphasizing their fascinating nature. They transition to reviewing detailed charts and invite viewers to ask questions via the chat box. Additionally, they remind viewers about a 20% discount available on their quantum indicators and educational packages as a thank you for watching the video.