Forex update – USD and EUR/AUD

With only two tier 2 releases due this afternoon in the US, namely Flash Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales, and liquidity fast draining away as summer kicks in, it will be interesting to see whether this morning’s moves in the forex market are likely to continue, or simply wither away. From a technical standpoint… Read more »

AUD/NZD – commodity cousins

The release of this evening’s RBA minutes should give us some insight into the Central Bank’s thinking on Australian interest rates, which were kept on hold earlier this month. In the run up the release the Aussie has been performing reasonably well against its peers, with the exception of the AUD/NZD where we have seen… Read more »

British pound in focus

Interesting move in Cable today as it appears to have failed to capitalize on Gov Carney’s remarks about interest rates, and the need for a rise sooner rather than later. Today’s move lower now sees Cable sitting on the strong support platform in the 1.5550 region, ahead of tomorrow Public Sector net borrowing figures. Whilst… Read more »

Gold crushed

Despite being bearish on gold for so long, and sounding to many gold traders and investors like a old recording stuck in a groove, even I have been astonished by the speed of this morning’s dramatic collapse in the precious metal. No doubt there will be many reasons offered as to why this has happened… Read more »

Forex room

A very big thank you to everyone who came along to this morning’s forex session. Great to see so many of you coming along, especially if your timezone means you should have been fast asleep in bed! David and I are really humbled and appreciate your commitment and hope you find what we teach helps… Read more »

Another bad day for gold

Another bad day for gold bugs yesterday with the metal closing with a wide spread down candle on the daily chart. Looks very bearish and any move below $1252 per ounce will see the metal continue lower. Silver is much the same – catch my post here: Longer term analysis for silver

Market Analysis

Hi ho silver …how low can you go!

For silver investors, and those who rushed headlong into buying when silver prices hit the $50 per ounce price point, it is perhaps the monthly chart which makes depressing reading, with the meteoric rise now reflected in an equally dramatic fall, and mirroring what has happened which in the price of gold. The monthly silver… Read more »

Oil continues to fall as OPEC tightens the screw

As speculative commodity traders, there are few occasions when it is hard not to make money, and certainly at present we have several stand out opportunities. These opportunities are rare, but when they occur, it’s time, as they say to ‘fill your boots’. Two such markets at present are gold and oil. For gold, as… Read more »

The trapdoor has finally opened for gold

Longer term gold investors and gold bugs I suggest should look away now as this week’s price action has finally broken below the level of support in the $1140 per ounce region, a level I have highlighted many times before on the monthly chart as being key for gold prices.  Indeed, in several posts I… Read more »

EUR/GBP – Anatomy of a currency cross

A recurring theme of our weekly forex webinars  is the importance of considering the cross currency pairs whenever trading forex. Many traders simply fail to take account of the flows into these pairs which often given a more nuanced view of the market’s sentiment towards a currency. One excellent example is the eur/gbp where on… Read more »

US dollar index remains bullish on the weekly chart

With markets now approaching high summer when as traders and investors we can expect a general slow down and draining away of liquidity, it is perhaps appropriate ahead of next week’s FOMC to consider the US dollar index on a weekly time frame. The chart we are using for this analysis is not the usual… Read more »

Stopping volume on the weekly copper chart

When studying any chart in whatever timeframe it can often be difficult to interpret the price action, particularly when a market has been in a congestion phase. A classic but simple example is the two bar reversal, where overlaying one candle on other often creates the classic hammer or shooting star which are often the… Read more »

Gold continues to lose its shine

For gold investors and gold bugs, the current malaise in the price of gold is both relentless and remorseless with each minor rally promptly engulfed by a wave of heavy selling. As someone wrote a few weeks ago, gold bugs consider the market to be functioning correctly when the price of gold is rising, and… Read more »

Do turkeys vote for Christmas ?

Well clearly the answer is no and the Greek turkeys have done the same. No great surprise, and perhaps even less so when you consider the questions being asked. Question one, would you like to pay more tax – answer yes or no. Question two, would you like to see more cuts – answer yes… Read more »

Forex majors round up as insiders gorge on Monday’s dinner!

As the half time whistle blows on another trading year, it’s time to take a look at four of the major currency futures, as Greece finally defaults and puts us all out of our misery! And if we start with the 6A the Aussie dollar, this pair continues to wallow in a sea of congestion… Read more »

Panic – what panic? Not according to gold!

Panic – what panic. Not according to the price of gold and whilst other markets have seen extreme volatility with equities plunging, currency pairs opening gapped down, and the VIX moving violently, gold has continued to remain calm and serene throughout, with hardly a murmur to reflect the turmoil around. Strange then, considering gold is… Read more »

Forex round up as Greek tragedy continues

    As the Greek tragedy continues to drag on, it’s perhaps an apposite time to take a tour round the four major futures of the 6A, the 6B, the 6C and the 6E for the September contract, and for each it is the move in the US dollar which is taking centre stage this… Read more »

Euro cross pairs are the better bet!

For euro dollar traders, if the last few months have taught us anything, it is has confirmed once again the euro is not a free floating currency, but merely the organ of political rhetoric and hubris of its lords and masters in Europe. The current debacle with Greece is the latest in a long, and… Read more »

NQ E-mini leading the way once again

It was another dramatic week for equities with the NQ emini once again leading the pack, returning to test the ceiling of resistance in the 4550 area, which to date has held firm, as the markets now await the outcome from Greece. Most likely a ‘solution’ will be found and the can kicked down the… Read more »

Dr copper remains in intensive care!

Copper, like many other commodities holds a mirror to the Reuters Jeffries CRB index, which continues to wallow in a sea of bearish sentiment on the daily chart. The rally of earlier in the year, which saw the index climb off the lows of 207.50 to regain the 233.50 region, before running out of steam… Read more »

Oil price war continues as OPEC tighten the screw

As we come towards the end of another trading month, crude oil price remain firmly rangebound as OPEC’s policy of taking on the alternative energy suppliers in a price war continues. Judging by its recent statements, OPEC is clearly intent on taking the long view to squeeze these companies out of business, and as the… Read more »

Round up of the currency majors as USD continues to remain weak

With the US dollar continuing to remain under pressure, despite last week’s positive jobs data, and with various central bank governors adding their weight to the mix, it’s a good time to take a quick look at our four major currency futures of the AUD/USD, CAD/USD, EUR/USD and the GBP/USD. If we start with the… Read more »

A quartet of commodities approach key levels

A quartet of commodities have all seen identical price action on the day, and are now approaching key levels as a result. For gold bearish momentum is now accelerating as we approach the $1175 per ounce level on rising volume, and if this level is taken out, then $1147 per ounce is the next pause… Read more »

There’s only one game in town for oil traders longer term!

For longer term oil traders, it is perhaps the weekly chart which sums up most concisely the current price action for the commodity, which could best be described as dormant, with the WTI contract for July looking set to trade in a narrow range for the 5th consecutive week. What is perhaps most revealing about… Read more »