I can't remember a trading week when politics have been centre stage. From the ongoing Brexit saga to the issues in Spain, the new government in New Zealand, and now we have the question of whether Janet Yellen is to continue as FED Chair. Media view is that she will not be asked to continue, so speculation is who is likely to replace her, and more importantly how this will affect the US dollar.
So something we need to have on our radar as well.
Whilst the fundamental landscape for oil remains much the same, with OPEC continuing to maintain supply control for both member and non members alike, the technical picture is once again approaching a key price region, and one which is likely to set the tone for oil prices moving forward. That price point is $52.50 per barrel and an area that was tested several times, both in late September and in early October, before the price of oil moved back to the volume point of control in the $49.65 per barrel area. [ 143 more words ]
For nervous investors with a fear of heights, the words of Jesse Livermore echo through the trading ages, as he exhorted fellow traders that a stock was never too high to buy or too low to sell. And the former is of course the more appropriate here, as the YM emini futures reflecting the cash markets, continue to extend ever higher into the rarefied atmosphere of new high ground. [ 272 more words ]
The NZD/USD has picked up the bearish tone once again overnight and into the London session as two primary forces continue to pressure the pair lower. The first of these is the continuing political uncertainty surrounding the currency with the recent election failing to deliver any clear mandate for either of the major parties with the National Party taking 56 seats, the Labour party holding 46 seats, and with the First party and the Greens then effectively holding the balance of power with 17 seats between them. [ 167 more words ]
Only a week ago we were considering VIX at new lows, and despite a spike to 11 following words from NK index has fallen back to 10. Seems traders & investors not yet rattled by threats from NK. ... See MoreSee Less
It is said markets are moved by fear and greed, but I would suggest complacency and euphoria to be a better reflection of trader and investor emotion. VIX is certainly highlighting deep complacency, particularly if it stays in single figures, which it can do for some time.
My post from last week about US equities, and the only spanner in the works is Kimmie whose actions at the weekend also designed to spoil Chinese hosting of the BRICS event. Tomorrow's US opening should be interesting.
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Watching hourly chart for gold & the USD index where precious metal is trading just above the VPOC at 1296.46 to the upside and 1289.41 to the downside. And although gold and index correlation has been a bit flaky recently, normal service appears to have resumed. ... See MoreSee Less
Recent move higher in oil prices capped at $50.84 per barrel (as per my MT4 daily chart). This is both today's and last Thursday's high for the commodity, but with price support at the 200 ma at $49.81 oil too seems to be waiting on the Wednesday's FOMC and some firm direction for the USD. ... See MoreSee Less
USD weakness not doing gold any favours at present with the metal likely to move back to test the $1300 per ounce region. However, we do have the 200 ma on the 4 hour chart for the metal so we should see some price support. And from a fundamental perspective this week's FOMC meeting is one to watch to see if the current divergence in USD/gold price action comes to an end or not. ... See MoreSee Less
Taders always get very excited a when gold reaches a psychological level & today's move above 1300.00 per ounce is no exception. As we can see from the daily chart taken from the XAU/USD contract on MT4 the precious metal has been in a well defined price channel since March this year, bouncing between the $1200 region (another important price point) and today's price. Today's push is part of the break away from the volume point of control at 1261. But any further moves to the upside will require a degree of effort as the daily chart has a number of congestion zones stretching back to 2013, and of course we do need to watch the USD. Nevertheless a very positive day for gold bugs. ... See MoreSee Less
GBP/JPY has finally broken out today and started to move away from last week's congestion phase on the daily chart. The currency strength indicator has been sending a strong signal for some time, and today has seen the initial move lower, helped by weak economic data. The pair look set for a move towards the VPOC in the 146 area. ... See MoreSee Less