1.1397 was the springboard for a nice move higher in eur/usd this morning which we tracked during our forex webinar, focusing on the levels & flows in the pair as the London session got under way. This move topped out at 1.1419, but using a combination of the 5min time chart & renko chart we have been able to see the swing in prices as the pair moves in consolidation ahead of nfp. 1.1430 is now the high of the day, but patience is now the order of the day until nfp.
Thank you for your very kind comments during the webinar. David & I really do appreciate them, and delighted you are finding our webinars useful. If you haven't signed up to this new series, you can do so at my personal site, and we have four more scheduled in the coming days. ... See MoreSee Less
Today's highlight is, of course, NFP & following yesterday's worse than expected unemployment figures & comments from various FED members - not sure if the number is going to be too rosy. We shall have to wait & see.
Meantime European traders have decided to give euro a big push this morning across the pairs & Aussie on the 'back foot' once again. So some great charts to look at in this morning's webinar. ... See MoreSee Less
Japan back from 3 day holiday with Nikkei trying to move off the lows & USD/JPY struggling to push higher from support at 107.04. The problems faced by Japan are wide ranging & markets have essentially lost faith in policy makers to weaken currency or boost inflation.
Strong move lower on Aussie following RBA statement now presenting some buying opportunities in faster time frames, & it's something David & I will be covering in today's forex webinar which starts at 7.45 am London time.
For AUD/USD 0.7381 is low of the day & 0.7380 imajor support - as price approaches first resistance at 0.7394. As always moves higher will be at a crawl! ... See MoreSee Less
For British pound services PMI today. So far sterling drifting higher against both the USD & euro but London open should help firm up direction. Big option expiry on eur/usd today so eur/gbp may be one to watch. ... See MoreSee Less
Saturday saw David & I presenting at a private traders' event in London where our topic was, naturally, volume price analysis.
And the one question we are always asked is can markets rise on 'low' volume, and our answer is always the same - volume is contextual and proportionate. And the best way to explain this is with a chart, and a great example is the YM (the e-mini future for the Dow Jones) which, as you can see has been happily breaking out into new high ground, supported by what we would describe as proportionate volume.
In other words it tallies with the price action, and unlike the climatic volume that first appeared in November which has been the precursor to this steady move higher.
So the move higher in the indices we are currently witnessing is well within the norm.
For any major reversal lower we would need to see a very different volume/price action profile, similar to the Wyckoff law of effort & result. So far this has not appeared in the slower time frames, and until it does there is no reason to suppose the markets cannot continue higher. ... See MoreSee Less
Another positive day for US equities with the major indices all rising strongly. For the YM emini we are back once again testing the highs of last year with 18,000 now on the horizon, and with a solid platform of support now in below which held through the congestion period. Volumes are solid and supportive, and for a continuation we now need to see this psychological level taken out with the springboard then in place for a sustained move higer longer term. ... See MoreSee Less
This was from our presentation a couple of weeks ago for a private traders group where we introduced and explained some of the principles of volume price analysis across the markets. Also explained the importance of El Nino in context of soft commodities and one in particular we highlighted was Soybean which was likely to benefit further from this driver. Bullish momentum maintained as expected with contract breaking into four figures. ... See MoreSee Less
Rally in copper stuttered to a halt on sustained insider selling with initial weakness duly confirmed with a second candle, all confirmed with volume on the daily chart. Not a major top but a nice example of VPA in action and setting the tone for intraday trading. ... See MoreSee Less
Nice trade developed on the British pound this morning in the London session across the faster timeframes with the yellow line (GBP) rising strongly from overbought across the time window. Spoilt for choice but the GBP/USD delivered and with some way to go ... See MoreSee Less