Very interesting confluence of levels on cable. Today's high of 1.2579 coincides very neatly with the 4th Camarilla pivot levels on the hourly & daily charts. Just to recap - the values calculated for the hourly chart are based on last week's HLOC & will remain on this chart until the end of the week. Daily levels are based on last month's HLOC & will stay until the end the month.
And given we have trigger of Art 50 in a couple of days 1.2579 is now the level to watch, and any break and hold above this point is usually taken as a valid break. But we may also be seeing a cap to the recent bullish run for cable. Much will also depend on what happens with the USD, but either way we should have some good short term trading opportunities. ... See MoreSee Less
A very Happy Monday and can't believe we are at the end of another month and first quarter. It's usually said that March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamp, but not sure it's going to apply to the markets this week. Reason is once again politics with Friday's failure by Donald Trump to push through his healthcare reforms appears to have cast a cloud over his entire program, and in particular his tax reforms. Market reaction since Friday evening has been swift and brutal with the Nikkei 225 falling 1.5%, NQ is down 50, and the ES down 23. These big moves in the indices does not bode well for the US markets later today. Donald take note, Mr Market is not happy!
Staying with politics, here in the UK 29th is our special day which is when Article 50 is due to be triggered.
And to cap it all we have no less than 10 FED officials speaking during the week.
For the USD we now have the index below the key 100 level, which has resulted in some strong moves in eurodollar, cable and usd/jpy, whilst moves in the comm dollars (AUD, CAD & NZD) have, so far, been more muted. ... See MoreSee Less
Thus, although there may be more political events in the European Union (EU) this year, from a market perspective, there may be more political risk with the United States and that’s a point US investors could do well to keep in mind.
I wrote this at the end of January for the VIX which is moving into worrying complacency levels, and reflecting the strong performance of the indices. We are not quite at single figures - but came perilously close yesterday at 10.74, so this afternoon's US session will be interesting. We also have to bear in mind that the index can stay low for an extended period of time, ie years, but as Wyckoff's second law of cause and effect tells us - the longer the complacency, the greater the reaction when it comes.
Problems in Washington over healthcare has seen strong market reaction & fall in USD, so no surprise to see gold back testing $1260 per ounce region. $1263 is level responsible for the correction at the end of February, and if gold does manage to get through,1266 is next significant resistance. This is also coincides with our third Camarilla pivot and a break here would also see gold move into a low volume node for a quick run to 1284 which is where the 4th Camarilla pivot awaits. So expect plenty of action on gold this week, all aided and abetted by Washington politics. ... See MoreSee Less
Gold reacting, as expected, to moves in USD & also capped by first camarilla pivot level at the $1250 per ounce region, as price support comes in at $1240. Much is being written about the political risk in the US, and in particular the postponement of the vote to replace Obamacare, and what this effect will have on the USD which in turn will move gold prices. We now simply have to be patient. ... See MoreSee Less
Daily gold chart highlights current bearish sentiment for the precious metal with price trying to hold onto 1200.00 per ounce price point. As I mentioned in a previous post price the failure to hold any of the Camarilla pivot levels has added to the current bearish move. Price is also just below the volume point of control which sits at 1205.00 and adding its own downwards pressure. On the weekly chart the VPOC is at 1200.00 - highlighting the significance of this price point, and where in the past buyers have stepped in to take the metal higher.
However, a combination of a hawkish FOMC and surge in USD will not be good news for gold prices. To the downside 1197 and 1194 are the two levels currently holding out any support. 1194 provided the springboard for a minor rally back to 1212 and these are now key for the precious metal. ... See MoreSee Less
Bullish USD & 1250 resistance have conspired to cap gold recent's good run, with the precious metal falling back below the volume point of control at 1232.84 on the daily chart. USD is softer today, but index is still above 102, and with a number of FED members, including Janel Yellen herself speaking at varioue economic events, we need to watch whether they will continue to boost USD.
From a technical perspective, what is slightly worrying for gold is the price action has already gone through three of this month's Camarilla support pivots at 1241.95, 1235.92 and 1229.89. A look at the 4hr chart is a little more positive with buyers stepping in at 1225 and the 200 ma at 1224. But as always gold's fortunes are tied to the USD, so any resumption of the bullish trend in the index will see gold move lower.
Returning to the daily chart the next support levels are at 1219 and the fourth Camarilla pivot at 1211.77. And as already mentioned to the upside the key level is the VPOC at 1232.84. ... See MoreSee Less
Interesting price action on oil yesterday - hammer candle without exceptional volume and closing at 200ma. Today price has stalled at the 49.35 double resistance, and with the oil inventories due later, and the FOMC should be a lively session ahead. ... See MoreSee Less
Thank you to everyone who came along to this morning's forex webinar topic was context. In other words understanding context of the price action in the context of slower time frames. How price action fits into the context of the fundamental landscape, related markets, and increasingly politics as well.
This was the reason we began by looking at the YEN index where the price action since the beginning of the year has been broadly sideways, unlike the dramatic trend we had following the US presidential election.
This sideways price action for the YEN not only explains why the major yen crosses too are in consolidation, but also highlights the mood of the broader market. It is market environment that is once again waiting for firm direction. That direction may be revealed later today with the FOMC and statement which may signal the beginning of the end for the current bull market. This bull market started on March 9th 2009 with the S&P at 666!
Monthly chart for the YEN index is also extremely interesting.
BTW I will be posting a link to this morning webinar later today. The video is currently being processed. ... See MoreSee Less
USD move higher now showing as o/b on 4hr chart, but daily still looking very bullish. We do have some FED members, including Janet Yellen herself speaking at various economic events, giving us an interesting confluence of techs and fundamentals. ... See MoreSee Less
Worrying to see gold already broken three Camarilla support pivots on the daily chart. For those of you who may not be familiar with Camarilla these pivot levels will remain on the daily chart for the remainder of the month and a great way of giving some hierarchy to price levels.
On the four hour chart 1225 has seen some buyers stepping in, and we do have the 200 ma at 1224 - but USD performance is currently driver for gold. ... See MoreSee Less