Asides

Sterling boosted by inflation data

This morning’s inflation data most definitely put the spring back into Cable bulls with the pair launching itself off the VPOC (volume point of control) and overnight lows in the 1.5570 and 1.5560 regions respectively. Indeed the pair   and pierced through the strong resistance at 1.5689 and even managed to pierce through the psychological… Read more »

Cable waits for BOE

Cable anticipating BOE by going precisely nowhere! All we can say is 1.5550 region represents strong support & is also where have the 200 ma. The pair has been rotating around the VPOC (the volume point of control) on the daily in the 1.56 region for some time, but we don’t have to wait much… Read more »

Cable may be rangebound, but the cross pairs deliver

Tomorrow sees the release of the Services PMI for the UK where a figure of 58.1 is expected against a previous of 58.5, a small but notable reduction and something traders will be paying close attention to given the UK’s huge reliance on its services sector. It will also be interesting to see whether tomorrow’s… Read more »

Aussie dollar in focus

The commodity dollar now coming into the market’s cross hairs is, of course, the Aussie where a string of key releases are due in the coming hours. The data kicks off with retail sales, expected at 0.5% against a previous of 0.3%, along with the Trade Balance numbers where the forecast is for -3.06B against a… Read more »

Forex update – USD and EUR/AUD

With only two tier 2 releases due this afternoon in the US, namely Flash Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales, and liquidity fast draining away as summer kicks in, it will be interesting to see whether this morning’s moves in the forex market are likely to continue, or simply wither away. From a technical standpoint… Read more »

AUD/NZD – commodity cousins

The release of this evening’s RBA minutes should give us some insight into the Central Bank’s thinking on Australian interest rates, which were kept on hold earlier this month. In the run up the release the Aussie has been performing reasonably well against its peers, with the exception of the AUD/NZD where we have seen… Read more »

British pound in focus

Interesting move in Cable today as it appears to have failed to capitalize on Gov Carney’s remarks about interest rates, and the need for a rise sooner rather than later. Today’s move lower now sees Cable sitting on the strong support platform in the 1.5550 region, ahead of tomorrow Public Sector net borrowing figures. Whilst… Read more »

Gold crushed

Despite being bearish on gold for so long, and sounding to many gold traders and investors like a old recording stuck in a groove, even I have been astonished by the speed of this morning’s dramatic collapse in the precious metal. No doubt there will be many reasons offered as to why this has happened… Read more »

Forex room

A very big thank you to everyone who came along to this morning’s forex session. Great to see so many of you coming along, especially if your timezone means you should have been fast asleep in bed! David and I are really humbled and appreciate your commitment and hope you find what we teach helps… Read more »

Another bad day for gold

Another bad day for gold bugs yesterday with the metal closing with a wide spread down candle on the daily chart. Looks very bearish and any move below $1252 per ounce will see the metal continue lower. Silver is much the same – catch my post here: Longer term analysis for silver

Market Analysis

Volatility & the euro

So far in this morning’s forex trading session it’s been a case of selling the euro and buying the commodity dollars, with a strong move lower also in the EUR/JPY, although this bearish sentiment towards the euro has not been as strong in eurodollar. What is particularly interesting in the euro pairs is the extent… Read more »

Where next for gold …..and silver?

Whenever I put the proverbial pen to paper and start to write about gold, I can already hear the chorus of dissenting voices from those traders and investors who only view their beloved metal as bullish, and can never accept the reality of what is actually happening on the chart. This is particularly the case… Read more »

Don’t panic…..Don’t panic!

Here in the UK in the 1970’s one of the most popular TV comedy series was one called Dad’s Army. The series was set during the second world war, and followed the exploits and adventures of the Home Guard which was established to protect the country in the event of an invasion. One of the… Read more »

The good news just keeps rolling in for oil traders

For oil traders and speculators the summer months continue to deliver stellar trading opportunities, and whilst equity investors are wringing their hands, the WTI contract shows no signs of wanting to reverse just yet. Indeed as a trader whose primary approach is based on volume price analysis, what is abundantly clear from the daily chart… Read more »

Cable drags down the bulls

One question I’m often asked by new traders which currency pairs they should they start with, and my suggestion has always been to consider Cable, simply because broker spreads are reasonable, and the pair almost always manages to deliver some good, solid trading opportunities. However, I have recently had to review this suggestion given Cable’s… Read more »

Aussie & kiwi rebound following PBOC decision

Market analysts have offered a number of reasons for the PBOC’s dramatic revaluation of the Yuan, including China’s desire to have the currency added to the IMF’s SDR basket of currencies. At present the SDR basket contains just four currencies – US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound, and as part… Read more »

Gold investors – look away now!

Like oil, gold is another commodity where the longer term perspective not only helps to place the current bearish picture in context, but also highlights more clearly where the metal is heading longer term. So in this case, let’s start with the monthly chart from which several things are self evident. First, last month’s price… Read more »

Oil prices – how low can they go?

When considering the chart for crude oil, there is really only one question to answer and it  is simply this – how low can it go! And to answer that particular question we need to consider the charts across a variety of timeframes. If we start with the daily chart, the self evidence of the… Read more »

Aussie & pound continue to hold the spotlight

Before tomorrow’s main event, namely the Non Farm Payroll numbers, we still have some important releases for a number of currencies, with the Aussie once again back in the headlines, and the AIG construction index, home loans and the RBA Monetary Policy Statement to look forward to overnight. The statement marks the end of a… Read more »

Aussie dollar bounces back on RBA rhetoric

It only took a shift in rhetoric from RBA Gov Glen Stevens to upset the Aussie dollar bears whose best laid plans went sent completely awry. Gov Stevens’s signal to the markets that the Aussie’s 22% plunge is doing enough to boost the economy was all it needed to move the AUD/USD from the strong… Read more »

Canada and the Loonie under the cosh

Of the currencies likely to be in focus this week, I really did not expect the week to start with a further move lower for the Loonie (and the Canadian economy) which have both been badly affected by falling oil prices. The Canadian government’s weekend decision to call an election for 19th October managed to… Read more »

Hi ho silver …how low can you go!

For silver investors, and those who rushed headlong into buying when silver prices hit the $50 per ounce price point, it is perhaps the monthly chart which makes depressing reading, with the meteoric rise now reflected in an equally dramatic fall, and mirroring what has happened which in the price of gold. The monthly silver… Read more »

Oil continues to fall as OPEC tightens the screw

As speculative commodity traders, there are few occasions when it is hard not to make money, and certainly at present we have several stand out opportunities. These opportunities are rare, but when they occur, it’s time, as they say to ‘fill your boots’. Two such markets at present are gold and oil. For gold, as… Read more »

The trapdoor has finally opened for gold

Longer term gold investors and gold bugs I suggest should look away now as this week’s price action has finally broken below the level of support in the $1140 per ounce region, a level I have highlighted many times before on the monthly chart as being key for gold prices.  Indeed, in several posts I… Read more »

EUR/GBP – Anatomy of a currency cross

A recurring theme of our weekly forex webinars  is the importance of considering the cross currency pairs whenever trading forex. Many traders simply fail to take account of the flows into these pairs which often given a more nuanced view of the market’s sentiment towards a currency. One excellent example is the eur/gbp where on… Read more »

US dollar index remains bullish on the weekly chart

With markets now approaching high summer when as traders and investors we can expect a general slow down and draining away of liquidity, it is perhaps appropriate ahead of next week’s FOMC to consider the US dollar index on a weekly time frame. The chart we are using for this analysis is not the usual… Read more »

Stopping volume on the weekly copper chart

When studying any chart in whatever timeframe it can often be difficult to interpret the price action, particularly when a market has been in a congestion phase. A classic but simple example is the two bar reversal, where overlaying one candle on other often creates the classic hammer or shooting star which are often the… Read more »

Gold continues to lose its shine

For gold investors and gold bugs, the current malaise in the price of gold is both relentless and remorseless with each minor rally promptly engulfed by a wave of heavy selling. As someone wrote a few weeks ago, gold bugs consider the market to be functioning correctly when the price of gold is rising, and… Read more »