Asides

Swiss franc matrix as we approach the anniversary

15th January 2015 is a date etched into the memory of Swiss franc traders, and is the day the SNB removed the floor of support for the currency, unleashing a wave of volatility on the markets not seen since the dark days of the financial crisis back in 2008. With year end on the horizon,… Read more »

Trap move on 5 min CL chart

It was business as usual for the big operators on the 5 minute chart for oil, with the trap move clearly evident immediately after the open of the major US markets. Oil prices were initially taken higher, and outside the average true range on this timeframe, with the volatility indicator being triggered as a result…. Read more »

No Monday morning blues for the Indices

With the Nikkei having fallen over 2% at the start of a new trading week and month, European and London traders could be forgiven for thinking their respective markets and Globex would simply follow suit. And the indices on Globex did indeed make an attempt to follow through to the downside, but it seemed Mr… Read more »

Weaker USD fails to put some sparkle into gold

Trading gold need not be as onerous or capital intensive as it once was, as many of the MT4 brokers now offer the precious metal on their platforms, along with other metals and markets. And indeed the daily chart for gold on MT4 is as bleak for gold bugs as it is in the traditional… Read more »

Euro duly delivers our forex webinar set up

Many thanks to those of you who came along to our forex webinars today. Both sessions provided us with plenty of examples of volume price analysis in action, but it was this afternoon’s webinar that has delivered the most dramatic price action. This morning it was the back wash from the BOJ monetary startement and… Read more »

Quantum trading indicators now available on Tradable

David & I are delighted to announce that the range of Quantum Trading indicators is now available on Tradable, and both David and I are delighted to be associated with such an innovative company. Tradable, available on Windows or Mac OS, has a unique interface which enables traders to download and arrange third party developed… Read more »

Another disappointing week for gold investors

For gold investors, it’s been yet another dismal week, with yesterdays wide spread down candle on high volume, picking up bearish momentum once again, that has only been marginally halted in today’s minor rally. A rally which lacks both conviction, and more importantly volume! The most significant aspect of the daily chart is now the… Read more »

Sterling boosted by inflation data

This morning’s inflation data most definitely put the spring back into Cable bulls with the pair launching itself off the VPOC (volume point of control) and overnight lows in the 1.5570 and 1.5560 regions respectively. Indeed the pair   and pierced through the strong resistance at 1.5689 and even managed to pierce through the psychological… Read more »

Cable waits for BOE

Cable anticipating BOE by going precisely nowhere! All we can say is 1.5550 region represents strong support & is also where have the 200 ma. The pair has been rotating around the VPOC (the volume point of control) on the daily in the 1.56 region for some time, but we don’t have to wait much… Read more »

Cable may be rangebound, but the cross pairs deliver

Tomorrow sees the release of the Services PMI for the UK where a figure of 58.1 is expected against a previous of 58.5, a small but notable reduction and something traders will be paying close attention to given the UK’s huge reliance on its services sector. It will also be interesting to see whether tomorrow’s… Read more »

Aussie dollar in focus

The commodity dollar now coming into the market’s cross hairs is, of course, the Aussie where a string of key releases are due in the coming hours. The data kicks off with retail sales, expected at 0.5% against a previous of 0.3%, along with the Trade Balance numbers where the forecast is for -3.06B against a… Read more »

Forex update – USD and EUR/AUD

With only two tier 2 releases due this afternoon in the US, namely Flash Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales, and liquidity fast draining away as summer kicks in, it will be interesting to see whether this morning’s moves in the forex market are likely to continue, or simply wither away. From a technical standpoint… Read more »

AUD/NZD – commodity cousins

The release of this evening’s RBA minutes should give us some insight into the Central Bank’s thinking on Australian interest rates, which were kept on hold earlier this month. In the run up the release the Aussie has been performing reasonably well against its peers, with the exception of the AUD/NZD where we have seen… Read more »

British pound in focus

Interesting move in Cable today as it appears to have failed to capitalize on Gov Carney’s remarks about interest rates, and the need for a rise sooner rather than later. Today’s move lower now sees Cable sitting on the strong support platform in the 1.5550 region, ahead of tomorrow Public Sector net borrowing figures. Whilst… Read more »

Market Analysis

Plenty of smoke but no roast!

As a trader and investor, I always find volatile markets the most interesting and rewarding. Rewarding because they offer opportunities in all markets with risk and sentiment flowing globally, and secondly interesting as it is at such times that the media frenzy takes hold, as pundits emerge to pronounce on bizarre market correlations, whilst simultaneously… Read more »

Volume signals return of buyers to the GBP/USD

For the British pound, the new year brought little respite from the heavily bearish picture which continued unabated for much of January, against the backdrop of global equity markets in a temporary swoon as Chinese data continued to disappoint. The trend lower has seen Cable shed over 1000 pips in rapid time, moving from the… Read more »

Copper prices remain beaten down

The start of the new year has seen no let up in the torrid time for commodities and commodity currencies, but for copper the continued uncertainty in China coupled with US dollar strength and lack of global economic growth continues to weigh particularly heavily, with the base metal breaking through the psychological $2.00 per lb… Read more »

Oil takes out one level, and now looks to the next!

When considering such as bearish chart as for crude oil, it’s interesting to play a mind game and consider it as perhaps a stock chart – an Enron or a Worldcom, and the prospect of oil going to zero. Free oil – an interesting thought and one that will never happen, but nevertheless when price… Read more »

Copper and the Aussie dollar under the cosh

For commodity currencies, and commodities in general, with the exception of gold, it’s been a torrid start to the year, with the Canadian dollar under severe pressure with the sharp decline in oil prices, and the Aussie dollar equally under the cosh from weak domestic economic data and the problems in China. Having already covered… Read more »

At last some good news for gold bugs

Whilst it’s been a very unhappy new year for many commodities, with crude oil plunging and copper following suit, for gold it’s been a rosy start, and for once it makes a nice change to be writing something positive about the precious metal, even though we may only be witnessing a knee jerk reaction as… Read more »

Not a happy new year for WTI

For oil prices, the new year could hardly be described as happy, as the relentless decline in prices continues, with December’s pause now starting to fracture, as February’s WTI contract picks up downside momentum. Monday’s price action confirmed this weakness as the 2016 trading year got underway, with the high of the session testing the… Read more »

Yen buying continues helped by North Korea

With equity markets once again under pressure as North Korea sends both physical and metaphorical tremors around the world, the USD/JPY in both spot and futures continues to reflect strong buying of the Japanese yen, with the USD/JPY falling and the 6J for March rising. Starting with the spot market, Monday’s price action reflected some… Read more »

Currency majors picking up the tone once again

Whilst the Japanese Yen and the Aussie dollar have started 2016 with a bang, for other currency majors it’s been a case of picking up where they left off in 2015, and none more so than the British pound which continues to remain under pressure having finally breached the psychological 1.5050 level in mid December…. Read more »

Chinese firecracker starts New Year with a bang

If traders drifting back to their desks for the start of the new trading year were expecting a quiet start, Chinese economic news delivered a shock to global markets with the Caixin Manufacturing index coming in below expectation at 48.2 against a forecast of 48.9, with the Nikkei 225 falling almost 600 points to close… Read more »

Technical picture dominates the YM emini as we wait for the FED

For the YM emini futures contract there is only one game in town at present from a technical perspective, and that’s the resistance level just below the 17,800 region which like a tropical storm, continues to build in strength and develop as the days pass to weeks, and the weeks to months. This region is… Read more »

What I said, this time last year

As regular readers will know, every year I write an end of year analysis, with a look forward to what the new year is likely to bring us, from both a trading and investing perspective. This is kindly taken by  investing.com  where you will be able to read my latest thoughts on what lies ahead as… Read more »

Currency futures settle down after Draghi

As we rush headlong towards the festive season, and the ECB bringing its own unique brand of drunken antics to the party with Draghi clearly overindulging, it’s time to consider the four major currency futures of the Aussie, the British pound, the Canadian dollar and the euro for the daily charts of the December contracts…. Read more »

Dollar remains bullish ahead of FOMC

Ahead of next week’s pivotal FOMC meeting the monthly chart for the USD Index is certainly taking on increasing significance, not least given last week’s gyrations with the euro resulting in the mother and father of all short squeezes on the eurodollar. The advantage the index under consideration in this post is that it takes… Read more »

Boom – WTI oil price crashes through the floor on rising volume

In my post of 5 days ago I highlighted how a confluence of factors had the potential to drive oil prices even lower, and down towards the $32 per barrel regions, last seen in 2009. The factors included the upcoming OPEC meeting and a weak technical picture on the daily chart. OPEC duly delivered a… Read more »

Silver breaking up as technical fissures appear

Whilst the spotlight of the metals complex generally focuses on gold whose demise has been relentless, silver too is following the same path lower, and whilst yesterday’s price action for the industrial metal was less dramatic than for gold, the price action this morning has opened up the same technical weakness now self apparent on… Read more »

Oil prices driven lower on fundamentals and technicals

These are interesting times for oil traders and speculators with Friday’s OPEC meeting in Vienna now on the horizon, and the question that will then be answered is whether the group will cut output to stem the supply glut that is now increasingly having to be held offshore around the oceans of the world. Yesterday’s… Read more »

YM emini tip toes through key resistance

For US equity markets, and the YM emini in particular, it is the daily chart which has focused the mind over the last few weeks, and the prospect of whether or not the sustained resistance level that has developed in the 17,850 region would be breached, or whether this would ultimately cap the Santa Claus… Read more »