We have all heard of the Fosbury flop which revolutionized the sporting world of high jumping, but sadly the same could not be said of Janet yesterday who delivered their equivalent effort of the FED flop. Unscheduled and tentative news releases such as the one highlighted in yesterday’s economic calendar can cause markets to become nervous and uncertain, not only on the content of such a release, but also the timing with the tentative nature of the release adding further to this uncertainty. Indeed the last such announcement was back in December 2012, with one a year earlier in November 2011, and given the infrequency of such announcements, the major US indices duly went into consolidation ahead of the announcement. We need not have worried, nor indeed should the markets, as Janet delivered another damp squib with the markets drawing a collective yawn before moving on to consider the prospect of the impending, or not, rate hike in December.
Moving to the technical picture for both the YM emini and the NQ emini, both are now at key technical levels on the daily timeframe, but for different reasons. If we start with the daily chart for the YM December contract, the level tested yesterday in the 17,800 area, is one that has been tested several times during November, and is now starting to build a very solid technical barrier to further progress higher. This region is clearly defined with the blue dotted line of the accumulation and distribution indicator, and was the trigger for the recent reversal earlier in the month which saw the index move off this region and back down to test the 17,100 before rallying to test it once again. What is also interesting in the recent rally is that the move higher has been accompanied with falling volume, and whilst we can expect volumes to be lighter in the run up to Thanksgiving and also Christmas, this is a worrying signal in the short term. In addition for the YM, but unlike the NQ, the price action has yet to penetrate the long congestion phase of earlier in the year which saw the index trade between 18,000 to the upside and 17,200 to the downside, and until this strong area of potential resistance is breached with conviction, we are likely to see further congestion prior to any breakaway and move higher. However, below on the volume point of control we have a high volume node in place at 17,400 which should provide a platform of price support in any reversal lower.
For the NQ December contract, the technical picture here is a little different, and as in earlier in the year, this index has been leading the way for its sisters indices. The key difference here is in the breach of the longer term congestion phase which occurred in late October, with the index surging through this region in the 4550 area and continuing higher on this platform of support. This is in contrast to the YM, which remains within this area and has yet to break through. The reversal in mid November for the NQ then revisited this area before returning to test the 4720 area, and like the YM, is now building into a solid area of price resistance, and one that was tested again in yesterday’s trading session. In today’s early trading the NQ has moved lower to currently trade at 4651 at the time of writing, but with the platform of potential support now in place below in the 4580 area, this should help to provide a cushion to any deeper move in due course. Whilst the technical picture for the two indices is a little different, where we have complete agreement is in the associated volume profiles, and once again for the NQ we have a market rising on falling volume, which is signaling short term weakness at present. For the longer term both indices now need to break through their respective stubborn areas of resistance, but of course much will depend on Janet and her fellow FED members and the decision next month. Let’s hope we don’t see another flop from Janet!
By Anna Coulling
Charts from NinjaTrader and indicators from Quantum Trading