Bullish momentum has returned to the EUR/USD once again, following Friday’s plunge lower for the US dollar, which sent the pair surging higher to test the 1.3000 level once again, as the Euro continues to defy gravity, and the market experts. The key price point on the daily chart came much earlier in the month, with the isolated pivot low posted on the 13th at 1.2659, with the market pushing higher from this position, and subsequently posting a higher pivot low on the 16th at 1.2689 – always a sign of strength. At the same time, this was accompanied by buyers re-entering the market on the daily chart, as positive sentiment returned for the Euro, and indeed since then, volumes have remained consistently positive, as the buyers remain firmly in control.
The daily trend also mirrors this change in sentiment, with the trend dots now moving to green to reflect the rising bullish volumes, and with the heatmap also green, the outlook is firmly bullish. Indeed the three day trend and volume are also confirming this analysis, with the trend in transition from red to white, and the first change in volume in this timescale, from bearish to bullish, with a green volume bar. For a longer term trend to develop the key now is to see the three day trend complete the transition, and move to bullish in this timeframe. For aggressive traders, we have already seen a set up signal on the chart with the blue volume entry signal, but conservative traders should wait for the three day trend to transition, before taking further long positions.
From a technical perspective, a series of isolated pivot highs defines the next region of price resistance which now awaits in the 1.3018 area, and coupled with the psychological 1.3000 level, this could prove tricky to overcome. However, if this area is breached, then expect to see the pair continue higher in the short to medium term, with a re-test of the 1.3138 level, and then on to test the isolated pivot high of the 17th September at 1.3171.
By Anna Coulling