So there we are, panic over once again as successful bond auctions in both Spain and Italy have eased investor fears resulting in further euro strength, particularly against the US dollar. It’s certainly tough being a euro bear at the moment! From a technical perspective the decisive move through the 200 day moving average along with the 9 and 14 day has only left the 40 day offering any resistance to a potential move back to re-test the Jan 4th high at USD1.34.
Today’s decision by the ECB to hold rates at 1% and accompanying rate statement are unlikely to have any effect on the current price action as traders turn towards the US trade balance and unemployment claims, expected to come in at -40.8b and 405k respectively. As always any major deviation of these forecasts could result in some temporary volatility. Other significant news from the US does not come until later this evening with the release of the twice yearly currency report along with a speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanake on the topic of lending to small businesses.
Sandwiched between these events we have, of course, the open of the US markets which yesterday saw the Dow post highs not seen since July 2008, albeit on relatively low volume, something which often signals the start of a pullback.