Aussie dollar down and out

AUD/USD - daily chart
AUD/USD – daily chart

Bearish momentum has picked up once again in the Aussie dollar, following the Business Confidence release which came in worse than expected at 0 against a previous of 3. This has resulted in, not only sending the AUD/USD lower, but has also been the trigger for opening up the next phase of price action with the pair breaking out of the congestion phase of the last few weeks.

From a technical standpoint, February’s attempt to rally from the lows of the 0.7600 area was accompanied with falling volume, before the resistance in the 0.7900 region also brought a halt to this move.  Having exhausted the move higher, bearish sentiment then returned with the pair breaking through potential support in the 0.7870 area, and finally on Friday moving through the 0.7720 platform (as denoted with the blue dotted line on the daily chart). The key level for the longer term is now building in the 0.7600 region, and once we see a close below this level, then downside momentum is likely to build further, with the sustained congestion phase above weighing heavily on the pair.

The fundamental picture too remains weak, with the Business Confidence release merely reinforcing this view. And with the RBA committed to a weaker currency, and lower interest rates, it seems likely the prospect of such a move may be coming sooner rather than later. The US dollar too is playing its part, with the dollar index now rising strongly, the longer term outlook for the AUD/USD remains very bearish.

By Anna Coulling

About Anna 1011 Articles
Hi – my name is Anna Coulling and I am a full time currency, commodities and equities trader. I have been involved in both trading and investing for over fifteen years and have traded many different financial instruments, from options and futures to stocks and commodities. I write and publish articles ( mostly for free ) for UK and international publications on a wide variety of financial issues, and in particular I enjoy helping others learn how to invest and trade.

1 Comment on Aussie dollar down and out

  1. Thanks Anna and Dave for this head up. We had a little bit of pull back with the AUDUSD this past week, but as you mentioned for the long term outlook it looks like the USD is back in the driver seat with this pair for the foreseeable future. However, as you know the Insiders can mover this market in any direction that they wish, at anytime that they wish and we always must be on guard. See you at the next Forex live training room this week.

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