With another trading week over, and Non Farm Payroll having come and gone for another month, markets in general are now looking forward, as the minor reversal in the US dollar’s unstoppable progress appears to have simply been a temporary pause and reaction to the worse than expected employment data. As always, one set of economic data, no matter how bad is unlikely to stop or reverse any longer term trend, and given the weight of money now behind the US dollar following the FOMC’s confirmation of an improving economic outlook, Friday’s reaction is unlikely to translate into anything more than a pause in the current bullish trend. Indeed, even the volatile reaction for gold seems to have been a knee jerk response triggered by intra day US dollar weakness and the prospect of a yes vote by the Swiss to force the SNB to increase its holdings of gold to 20%.
Whilst the reaction in gold was dramatic, the move higher for silver was less so, with the metal closing a modest 30 cents per ounce higher in the session and with wicks to both top and bottom of the candle, signalling market indecision on high volume. Indeed having tested the $15.10 per ounce level once again on Friday, and with this level of volume, we should have seen a sustained move higher with a wide spread up candle, rather than the rather lack lustre response. In overnight trading and into the morning session, silver has remained weak, trading off the highs of $15.89 per ounce at $15.58 per ounce at the time of writing. The longer term outlook foe silver remains firmly bearish, with the next level of potential support now in place in the $14.20 oer ounce area, and should the US dollar continue its bullish trend higher as expected, then Friday’s reaction for both gold and silver is likely to be confirmed as just a pause point, in an otherwise longer term bearish trend.
By Anna Coulling