Whilst fundamentals and weather play a huge role in driving the price action for natural gas, the technical picture is now increasingly taking centre stage as we move into the warmer months of the year and the commodity responds accordingly.
From a technical standpoint the daily chart for the May contract continues to reflect the heavily bearish sentiment for natural gas, and in particular, we are now approaching a key platform of support in the 2.655 region. The congestion phase of the past two months, which has seen the commodity oscillate between 3.050 to the upside and 2.700 to the downside now finally appears to be breaking down, and should natural gas manage to break through the platform of support we could see a further sustained leg down. Yesterday’s trading session saw the volume rise with the market closing lower, and further confirming the current bearish sentiment.
Moving to the weekly chart this bearish sentiment is self evident here too, where we can see two deep areas of price resistance overhead, the first of these at 3.100 and the second at 2.800. Below, the next logical price point for any support is denoted by the blue dotted line at 2.52, a level which last held in November 2013 and helped to propel the commodity dramatically higher into early 2014, when it touched a weekly high of 5.621, coinciding with the polar vortex in the US.
By Anna Coulling