Gold prices finished last week in bullish mood once again following the extended period of price congestion which has seen the precious metal trade within the range of the wide spread volatility up candle of the 11th February. This candle was seminal in defining and describing any further advance for gold, given its move outside the average true range on the day, and associated with ultra high volume. Friday’s price action has now taken on increasing significance for the longer term with the wick to the underside if the candle coupled with high volume suggesting a breakaway from this region, and further bullish momentum to come in due course. In addition the price action of Friday moved gold firmly through the high volume node of resistance on the volume point of control in the $1240 per ounce area, and with a low volume node now ahead in the $1275 per ounce region, the price of gold looks set to continue to rise further. The rising triangle pattern of price action of the last two weeks also provided a strong signal as to Friday’s move, all of which has been confirmed on the daily gold chart, with the trend monitor remaining bullish since the initial move away from the volume point of control which remains in the $1070 per ounce region and adding weight to the bullish sentiment now in place for gold.
Moving to the weekly chart it is a similar picture here, with Friday’s close taking the price above the range of the volatility candle posted in mid February, whilst simultaneously taking out the resistance area at $1255 per ounce; a price region that had capped an advance the previous week. With gold prices now moving firmly higher from the volume point of control on rising volume, we could see the high of early 2015 duly tested in the $1311 per ounce area, and if so, a move towards $1355 per ounce in the longer term. All good news for gold bugs, and with the prospect of some much needed inflation now on the horizon, albeit some way off, coupled with some US dollar weakness, we may have finally seen a pause in the longer term bearish trend for gold.
By Anna Coulling
Charts from NinjaTrader and indicators from Quantum Trading